Forecasting Learner Needs in a VUCA World: A Systems Approach to Educational Planning
Keywords:
Educational Planning, Soft System Thinking, Foresight EducationAbstract
This study aims to construct a conceptual model for educational planning that is both contextually grounded and future-oriented, particularly within the framework of Indonesia’s Kurikulum Merdeka. Integrating Soft Systems Thinking (SST) and foresight, the research employs Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) to analyze qualitative data collected from school actors—principals, teachers, students, and parents. The methodology maps systemic tensions, actor worldviews, and transformation opportunities in school-based planning practices. Findings reveal a fundamental disconnect between aspirational curricular visions and the operational realities of school planning. Participants expressed a collective need for a planning system that empowers learner agency, accommodates contextual diversity, and anticipates future competencies such as digital literacy, ecological consciousness, and collaborative intelligence. Based on these insights, the study formulates a root definition and a conceptual model of a school planning system that is reflective, dialogical, and foresight-informed. The proposed model offers a feasible framework for reconfiguring educational planning as a dynamic learning ecosystem—one that is inclusive, adaptive, and strategically aligned with the demands of a rapidly changing future.
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